EUR / USD
On Tuesday, July 9, trading ended for EUR / USD down by another 5 bpts. In the past two days, the total euro-dollar pair lost only 15 basis points. That is why the current wave counting, which is on the verge of making adjustments, continues to persist.
I am reminding you that a successful attempt to break through a minimum of wave 2 or b will indicate the readiness of the currency market to build a downward trend, and the current trend portion will be transformed to a three-wave one. The news background on Monday-Tuesday was zero for the pair. Yesterday, Jerome Powell delivered a speech; however, it was not held in Congress and it was not interesting.
But today, Powell will speak in Congress on the semi-annual report. In addition to the report itself, politicians will ask questions to the chairman of the Federal Reserve System. In this way, Powell can lift the veil of uncertainty over the Fed’s plans for easing / tightening monetary policy. What is needed for the euro to grow?
To be frank, it is the “pigeon” rhetoric of Powell. The more he shows his fears, doubts and hints about the need to stimulate the economy, the greater the chances of strengthening the bulls.
Purchase goals:
1.1417 – 100.0% Fibonacci
1.1480 – 127.2% Fibonacci
Sales targets:
1.1180 – 0.0% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The euro / dollar currency pair presumably remains in the upward trend. I recommend buying euros with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1417 and 1.1480, which equates to 100.0% and 127.2% Fibonacci, if the pair does not go below the level of 0.0%. Purchases should be minimal. Leaving the tool below the 0.0% level will require making adjustments to the current markup.
GBP / USD
On Tuesday, July 9, the GBP / USD currency pair fell with another 60 basis points, which led to the introduction of adjustments and additions to the current wave marking.
According to the new markup, on June 25, the downward wave e – the fifth in the structure of the descending part of the trend, starting on March 13, began its construction. The news background still remains in favor of the US dollar, since we have not received any positive message from the UK.
Perhaps today, traders will be pleased with data on GDP and changes in the volume of industrial production in Britain, but the probability of this is small. Perhaps, in the evening, Powell will disappoint investors in the US dollar – this is more likely to happen. Thus, the position of the pound sterling is disappointing, but rather not hopeless.
Sales targets:
1.2418 – 161.8% Fibonacci
1.2334 – 200.0% Fibonacci
Purchase goals:
1.2783 – 0.0% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The wave pattern of the pound / dollar instrument involves the construction of a downward wave e. Thus, I recommend selling the pair with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.2418 and 1.2334, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% in Fibonacci. A signal at the top of the MACD will indicate the construction of an internal correctional wave in e.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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