The currency market continues to distance itself from the looming budget crisis in the United States, which will begin on Monday, October 2nd. Other markets are preparing for this event as well; the S&P 500 is up 0.02%, Dow Jones is down 0.20%, the yield on 5-year U.S. government bonds has risen from 4.59% to 4.70%, and WTI crude oil has increased by 3.82%.
The euro trading volume on Wednesday was one of the highest in September, suggesting that positions were being closed due to stop-loss orders. All of this appears to be a massive speculative campaign aimed at driving mid-level players out of the market ahead of the budget shutdown.
On the daily chart, the price has reached the support of the embedded line of the global price channel. Theoretically, after breaking through the support at 1.0483, the target will be 1.0410, but the euro is unlikely to reach this mark over the next two days. In addition, there are not enough long positions to drive the price above 1.0552. A trading range has formed between 1.0483 and 1.0552.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is going through a slight correction after a significant drop, and the Marlin oscillator is trying to recover its Tuesday-Wednesday positions. We are still waiting for a resolution of the U.S. budget situation on Monday.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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