A significant decline in global stock markets, gold, and several commodities on Tuesday could not help but boost the desire for counter-dollar currencies to rise a bit while awaiting the budget-parliamentary crisis in the United States. The S&P 500 lost 1.47% yesterday, and gold dropped by 0.88%. Yields on 5-year U.S. government bonds rose slightly, but this only confirms the investors’ situation anticipating a budget “short squeeze.” This is particularly noticeable against the backdrop of reduced attention to the “government shutdown.”
The euro has been declining for the eleventh consecutive week. From a technical perspective, a turbulent correction begins after twelve weeks of either rising or falling. This pattern is rare; the last time it occurred with the euro was in the summer and fall of 2014 during the height of the European crisis, with a caveat related to the candle of the second week of September. Prior to that, with a similar caveat, the pattern occurred in the fall of 2004 when the euro rose for 11 consecutive weeks.
On the daily chart, the price has come very close to the magnetic intersection point of three lines: the Fibonacci ray, the Fibonacci channel line, and the target level of 1.0552. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in no hurry to exit the wedge. In the eleventh week, the price may still dip below this support, but in such a situation, time becomes the main factor – Monday of the following week.
On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has turned the convergence into a wide range within a downtrend. The price has approached the lower band of the 1.0552 range and may now edge up. One reason for the rise could be a decrease in orders for durable goods in the United States, expected at -0.5% for August.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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