Once again, the euro is following an alternative scenario. Yesterday, the day closed with a black candle below the support at 1.0613 and below the Fibonacci channel line. The price is heading towards the target at 1.0552. The euro has a saw-toothed structure of decline, typical of corrective movements, and this correction, since July 18th, is clearly prolonged.
The likely reason for this is the ongoing decline in the stock market. Now, a crisis correlation (the decline of both the stock market and the dollar) is possible in the event of a U.S. budget collapse – in the event of an emergency reduction in budget expenditures. U.S. lawmakers have a deadline until October 1st.
The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart has returned to the wedge, slightly modifying it but maintaining the priority of breaking above it. We probably shouldn’t expect strong movement until we reach Monday, October 2. If the budget issue in the United States is resolved by a certain deadline, we may see an appetite for risk – growth in the stock market and the euro. Thus, the single currency still has a bullish bias. Only a clearly interpreted and protracted crisis will shift the priority (our target is 0.9338).
On the 4-hour chart, the price is decreasing after a series of unsuccessful attempts to overcome the MACD line and the balance line. Marlin has expended all its strength for growth, and it will be difficult for it to recover now. We will likely see a sideways trend until Monday.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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