Yesterday’s US CPI data came in around forecast levels. The August Core CPI dropped from 4.7% YoY to 4.3% YoY, while the CPI rose from 3.2% YoY to 3.7% YoY (forecast of 3.6% YoY). Considering that industrial production in the eurozone plummeted by 1.1% in July and decreased by 2.2% YoY (forecast -0.3%), the euro’s decline could have been greater than the 24 pips that we saw yesterday.
Trading volumes were substantial, indicating that there was market activity, and traders preferred to hold their positions ahead of today’s European Central Bank meeting, as the probability of a rate hike stands at 68%. If investors showed an intention not to sell the euro based on US inflation data, they may buy it following the ECB meeting. The bullish target is the 1.0824/32 range. Technical convergence in action. Rising above this range will open up the target of 1.0882. The MACD line is approaching this level.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is between the balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator is currently holding an uptrend. A waiting mode is likely until the ECB announces its rate decision.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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