US employment data came out strong on Friday, but markets appear to have tipped the risk side at the wrong time, confused about the Federal Reserve’s next move. The market managed to set the probability of a 0.50% hike at the December meeting as 61.5% (from the previous 47.2%), but investors lost sight of the inflation factor, exactly what the Fed is fighting against.
Inflation promises to rise even faster as the EU plans to ban purchases of Russian oil, and the G7 countries and Australia have decided to set a price ceiling for Russian oil. Oil (#CL) jumped 5.26%. Therefore, a number of economists believe another rate hike of 0.75%, or a protracted series of 0.50%.
The euro rose by 211 points on Friday, but over the weekend investors rethought the current situation and Monday opened with a falling gap. But it is desirable to close the gap, so the euro can still grow, up to the upper limit of the price channel of the daily chart, to the area of 1.0025. Downward movement in the current situation is limited by support at 0.9864. Now, even from the technical side, the uncertainty of the market is visible.
This uncertainty for the bears will end with the price’s movement below the MACD line (0.9825). For bulls, the situation is more complicated. The exit of the price from the descending price channel does not promise to keep the upward trend, as this exit can easily turn out to be false. In this case, the resistance levels are 1.0051, 1.0100 and above.
On the H4 chart, the price decides the issue with the MACD line – whether it should overcome this line and the level of 0.9950 with it, or ease the pressure for a small rollback and subsequent growth in order to close the window. We are watching.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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