Yesterday, the euro made a decent attempt to rise. The upper shadow tested the embedded line of the price channel, and the day closed at the target level of 1.0905. There is only one flaw – the Marlin oscillator line’s move below the lower band of its own descending channel. This delays the upward movement.
However, if the price overcomes yesterday’s high, consequently breaking the price channel line, and the day closes with a white candle, the pair may continue to rise next week, and the Marlin leaving its own channel will become a false signal.
This main scenario is supported by forecasts for German IFO (an increase in the business expectations index for November may grow from 84.7 to 85.7) and the U.S. PMIs, which are expected to decrease in the November assessment. If the euro does not rise today, we expect the price to consolidate above the price channel line on any other day.
An alternative scenario assumes further corrective movement with support at 1.0834, and only after that, a recovery in growth with 1.1033 as the target or even higher.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is rising above the MACD indicator line, finding it a reliable support. The Marlin oscillator is still on the descending half, which delays the progress of growth.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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