Yesterday, the euro did not outperform today’s paramount event as an increase in the base rate of the European Central Bank (0.00%) and fell in anticipation of 48 points, intending to meet it on technical support (1.0150). We believe that yesterday’s news from news agencies that the main rate was raised by 0.50% at once was a piece of information to reduce the market’s reaction to the planned increase by 0.25%.
But even if such a goal was not pursued, the rate will indeed be raised by 0.50%, we do not expect the euro to turn into growth – the observed movement remains corrective in its structure. The first resistance to the ongoing correction is the MACD line, which now coincides with the target level of 1.0360, determined by the June 15 low. The second target at 1.0470 is the April 28 low, which is already unlikely.
The limited growth is also indicated by the Marlin Oscillator, which is now growing in a hypothetical descending channel. Its growth is limited by the upper border of the channel, the development of which may coincide with the price reaching the level of 1.0360. The signal for growth will be when the price surpasses yesterday’s high (1.0273).
If the rate is raised by the expected 0.25%, then we do not exclude the market’s reverse reaction – consolidating under 1.0150 and resuming the decline to 1.0020 and 0.9950.
There is no indication of a preferred price direction on the four hour time frame. Formally, the quote is above the indicator lines, but Marlin is already striving to enter the downward trend zone. The situation is neutral and market participants are preparing to meet the ECB release in a convenient position for both bulls and bears.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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