As a result of Friday, the euro grew by 76 points after reacting to moderately positive US employment data. The unemployment rate slipped to 3.6% from 3.7% in May, although Non-Farms showed that the US economy added 209,000 jobs in June 2023, following a downwardly revised 306,000 in May, and below market forecasts of 225,000. This was reflected to some extent in the broad unemployment index – it rose from 6.7% to 6.9%.
The overall labor force participation rate was unchanged for the fourth consecutive month at 62.6%, and there is room for growth to around 62.8-62.9%, where this share of the active population was quite stable in 2015/19. Therefore, the labor market is not yet saturated, even the average hourly earnings for all employees rose by 0.4% in June.
If we consider Friday’s data in conjunction with Thursday’s ADP data, the picture seems favorable for dollar growth. In fact, after a little hesitation with the release of data, the dollar strengthened, but as on Thursday, it was speculatively bought out. The trading volume was less compared to Thursday.
And this could mean that the resistance of dollar buyers has been broken, or the bulls themselves are close to completing such a two-day speculative operation. In the first case, the euro’s growth will extend at least to 1.1028 (and then the price will diverge from the oscillator on the daily chart), or higher, to 1.1085, or, in the second case, the euro will still grow a little for technical work out of the upper band of the price channel to 1.0980 and will turn to depreciation in the medium-term.
Whatever the case may be, buying the EUR/USD pair right now is risky, we are still waiting for the euro to turn to a 4-5 figure drop, we just have to wait for this turn to form. On the four-hour chart, the price is rising above the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is in a position to grow, we have an uptrend in the short-term.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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