The dollar’s first rush to a massive strengthening across the board since trading opened in the new year was wiped out by Friday’s surge in counter-dollar currencies and the return of risk appetite to the markets – stock markets have already exceeded their pre-new year’s values.
The euro rose 125 pips on Friday, which is one of the signs that the bearish correction is over, but until the price settles over the range of 1.0595-1.0660 and the signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart falls to the positive area, it is too premature to change the reversal strategy.
The second scenario, with the formation of a complex extended divergence, which we considered in mid-December, gets an upgraded look – the reversal from the support area of 1.0470 while reaching the target range of 1.0758-1.0787. On the daily chart, it is marked with the dashed lines.
At the moment, under the main scenario, I expect the correction to end in the range of 1.0595-1.0660 and movement below 1.0470, which will also mean that the price will move under the MACD indicator line.
On the four-hour chart, the price settled above the MACD line, the Marlin has settled in the positive area, and the situation changes into which the euro could rise. But the price and the oscillator are not settling on the daily chart, so the output on the four-hour chart may not be accurate.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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