The main event on Wednesday was the drop recorded in oil (WTI) by -3.91%, S&P 500 by -0.39%, copper by -1.26%, and US government bond yields (5-year from 4.14% to 4.10%). The dollar index strengthened by 0.14%, and the euro lost 31 points.
If the dip in commodities is not particularly noteworthy, as oil has been falling for two and a half months, the stock markets recording losses suggests that investors are expecting weak US employment data.
The first signal came yesterday with the release of the ADP private sector employment data, which showed only 103,000 new jobs against an expected 130,000. We also believe that tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls will be below the average forecast of economists at 180,000.
But does this mean that the euro will continue to fall if the US releases weak employment data? This is only possible if investors are confident in an impending economic crisis. Yesterday’s correlations showed us exactly this sentiment among market participants, but will it continue? Unfortunately, we cannot know for sure.
Even among US news agencies, the theme of the crisis has not intensified recently. We’ll find out tomorrow. On the daily chart, the price almost reached the target level of 1.0757 (set by the November 6 peak, falling short by only 2 points), and now the price will either bounce off this level or break through it, falling until it hits the support of the MACD line (1.0707).
On the 4-hour chart, both the price and the Marlin oscillator intend to form a convergence; a correction is possible with the goal of retesting one of the recently broken support lines near the target level of 1.0834. We await further developments until Friday evening. The euro may take a break ahead of Friday’s US employment data.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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