Investors raise their expectations this week, in which several central banks meetings (Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England) are held, given the ongoing divergence between central banks’ monetary policies. The Fed will become softer, while the ECB will be more hawkish.
Formally, the forecast for a rate hike by all central banks is the same – 0.50%, but there has been so much talk about a surprise from the ECB that a 0.75% hike has become a forecast rather than a surprise. And that’s why the euro closed Monday at the opening level despite the decline of other counter-dollar currencies.
This morning, the price is trying to rise. Today’s main event will be the US inflation report for November. CPI is expected to decline from 7.7% y/y to 7.3% y/y. The euro has a chance to reach the target range of 1.0615/42. If the divergence in the sentiment of the central banks is really strong, the euro may go higher, to the range of 1.0758/87 (highs in May and June).
On the four-hour chart, the price failed to fall under support of the MACD line. The last reversal from it occurred this morning. The Marlin oscillator is shifting to the upside. We expect the price to reach the first target range of 1.0615/42.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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