Yesterday’s US economic data showed that GDP grew by 1.1% for the 1st quarter y/y against a forecast of 2.0% y/y, a 5.2% decline in pending home sales for March compared to an expected 0.5% increase, but the dollar index edged up by 0.03%. The euro fell by 12 points. On the daily chart, the price got stuck at the target level of 1.1073, with an intensification of technical divergence.
This delay is likely to continue until the release of Eurozone GDP data. Quarterly growth is expected to be 0.2%, with an annual decrease from 1.8% to 1.4%. Closer to the evening, data on US personal spending/income for March will be released; spending forecast is -0.1%, income 0.2%. The Chicago Business Activity Index for April may decline from 43.8 to 43.5. Against this background, it is quite possible to expect another upward surge in the euro, overcoming Wednesday’s peak of 1.1096.
However, it is unlikely to reach the target level of 1.1185, as there are only 3 days left until the Federal Reserve meeting. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank’s rate decision will be announced the following day, on Thursday. Ultimately, we expect the dollar to win, but volatility is likely to be high. We can discuss the dollar’s victory after the price overcomes the MACD line around 1.0910.
On the four-hour chart, the divergence of the price with the oscillator is intensifying, warning of the imminent completion of the price’s suppression of the MACD line. Overcoming yesterday’s low will allow the price to wait for the Fed’s release in a calmer environment. However, speculators may deliberately maintain the current tension.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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