The euro did not take the chance to overcome the nearest peak of April 14 at 1.1076, and so its high was 1.1068. Thus, there will be no divergence. In this case, the growth of the last five days takes on the role of correction from the fall of April 14-17. The price clearly shows the intention to reach the support of the MACD line, coinciding with the low of April 17 at 1.0910.
When the price reaches this target, the Marlin oscillator will already be in negative territory, which will help in overcoming this level to attack the lower support of 1.0872 – on the embedded line of the green downtrend channel.
The First Republic Bank reported a loss of 102 billion in client funds. The bank’s shares collapsed by 49.38%, pulling the S&P 500 down by 1.58%. Yields on US government bonds fell, and the market probability of the Federal Reserve raising the rate by 0.25% next week also decreased (76.2% vs. 88.1% the day before), but markets are already preparing for a new wave of crisis (in the US), which is expected to start this summer. The dollar will strengthen in this crisis, as demonstrated yesterday, in the role of a protective asset.
On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below the MACD indicator line, and the Marlin oscillator has moved towards the decline. I expect the price to fall to the nearest target of 1.0910. However, market participants are waiting for comments from the Fed representatives regarding the current situation, so despite the technical prerequisites, we do not expect a significant decline until May 3rd.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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