Our expectations of a “soft surprise” from the European Central Bank did not materialize. Not only did the ECB keep its interest rate unchanged, but the Bank also maintained a neutral tone in its accompanying statement, including comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, despite a steady decline in inflation. As a result, the price did not even reach the level of 1.0696.
However, the price also did nothing to disrupt the emerging downward movement in the medium-term. And there’s no reason for it to do so. Today, Germany will release its inflation data for March – the harmonized CPI is expected to fall from 2.7% y/y to 2.3% y/y. If the data even slightly exceeds expectations, investors’ confidence in a rate cut in June will strengthen, as Lagarde mentioned that the ECB will not wait until inflation “returns to 2%.”
We expect the euro to fall within the target range of 1.0636/56, but the price will need a little more time for this. Its first task is overcoming the intermediate support at 1.0696. On the 4-hour chart, the price stalled at the level of 1.0724 (the lows of February 6th and April 2nd). Consolidation below it will make it possible for the price to reach 1.0696. We expect the main events to unfold next week.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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