The weakness the euro showed at the Kijun-sen (MACD) line (daily) quickly resulted in a sharp rebound back into the range of September 18, as rising yields on U.S. government bonds continued to apply consistent pressure on the dollar.
This pressure remains in effect today. To overcome it, weak PMI data from the Eurozone and strong PMI from the U.S. would need to be released. However, economists’ forecasts suggest the opposite: a slight strengthening in the European indices and weakening in the American ones. If the PMIs don’t bring a pleasant surprise for the dollar, the EUR/USD pair could reach the upper boundary of the price channel around 1.1916.
On the four-hour chart, the price has broken and secured positions above the Kijun-sen line (blue moving average) and the balance line (red). The Marlin oscillator has also secured itself in positive territory. The short-term trend is upward. However, if the price returns below the Kijun-sen line at 1.1782 and consolidates under it, this could trigger an attack on the 1.1720 level. The Marlin oscillator’s weakness on the H4 chart, along with a possible return to negative territory, lends a strong possibility to this scenario — as the primary trend remains downward.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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