The sideways movement of the past week resulted in a downside gap today. However, this was largely influenced by a more significant 200-point gap in the USD/JPY pair, caused by Sanae Takaichi’s election as head of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party over the weekend. A protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she is now expected to become Japan’s next prime minister. This development indirectly impacted EUR/USD, but the euro may still strengthen over the course of the new week.
The upper boundary of the current range is marked by the October 1 high at 1.1779. A consolidation above this level would open the path toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1910. However, this target may not be achieved if U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline. The MACD support line lies at 1.1697. A firm move below it would expose the target at 1.1605. The Marlin oscillator continues to drift horizontally along the zero (neutral) line.
On the four-hour chart, the initial resistance is the MACD line at 1.1750. After closing the gap, the price may pause slightly at this resistance level. The Marlin oscillator is re-entering positive territory, confirming that its brief dip into the negative zone was likely false. This supports the outlook for a short-term (several days) upward movement in the EUR/USD exchange rate.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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