Yesterday’s 0.25% rate cut by the European Central Bank tempered the euro’s bullish momentum, with the day closing just 4 pips higher. Today, the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for February will be released, with the consensus expecting 159,000 new jobs, up from 143,000 in the previous month.
This image is no longer relevant Based on existing data on jobless claims and layoff rates, the employment figures are likely to align with forecasts. The key question is whether they will be strong enough to shift market control in favor of the U.S. dollar.
If we assume a scenario where the medium-term uptrend continues, a correction to 1.0667—which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire four-day rally—seems warranted. If the data supports the dollar, a decline to this level is expected.
A confirmed break below 1.0667 would signal the start of a medium-term downtrend for the euro, with further confirmation coming from a move below 1.0534. If the U.S. data disappoints and the price breaks above 1.0882, the technical outlook will become much more complicated, increasing the likelihood of further euro strength.
On the H4 chart, the price has already attempted to retest 1.0762 from above. A firm move below this level would open the way toward 1.0667. The Marlin oscillator’s signal line has turned sharply downward, indicating growing bearish momentum. The price appears to be aligning with the MACD line, and this move could extend down to 1.0667. If the price breaks through the 1.0667 support level and the MACD line, the probability of a trend reversal will increase significantly.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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