By the end of yesterday’s trading session, the euro had declined by 47 pips, retreating from an earlier attempt to break above the 1.0949 level. The support at 1.0882 was breached, with the day’s low aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upward movement. Two main factors contributed to this decline: a minor drop in the stock market (S&P 500 -0.22%) and the Swiss National Bank’s rate cut from 0.50% to 0.25%, which caused the Swiss franc to depreciate by 0.52%.
The divergence on the daily chart has played out, but the sharp drop in the Marlin oscillator raises concerns as it is almost ready to reverse. A movement above 1.0882 would re-open the path toward 1.0949, which is the primary scenario. To confirm a bearish continuation, the price would need to drop below yesterday’s low, targeting 1.0762. In this case, the Marlin oscillator may either rebound from the zero line or make a false breakout into negative territory.
On the 4-hour chart, the trend remains bearish, as the price is developing below the Balance line, and the Marlin oscillator is in negative territory. However, there are setups for both upward and downward movements: a break above 1.0882 targets 1.0949, while a drop below 1.0815 targets 1.0762.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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