EUR / USD
November 13 ended for the pair EUR / USD with a decline of 5 basis points. Despite the fact that the instrument showed almost no change over the whole day, the alleged wave 1 continues its construction and reaches the level of 1.0993, which corresponds to 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement constructed on the upward part of the trend between October 1 and 31.
Thus, we have a correction of 61.8%. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the Fibonacci level of 61.8% may lead to the completion of wave 1 construction and the transition of the euro-dollar instrument to the construction of wave 2 with approximate targets located around 1.1060.
A successful attempt to break the level of 1.0993 will indicate the willingness of the currency market to continue selling the euro with the target of 1.0950, which corresponds to 76.4% Fibonacci.
Fundamental component:
On Wednesday, the news background for the euro-dollar instrument was very colorful. The continuation of the construction of wave 1 fully corresponds to it, although the movement itself could be much stronger. At the same time, we have Inflation in America, which to the delight of dollar bulls, increased in October to 1.8% y / y.
The consumer price index in Germany, on the contrary, showed very weak dynamics (1.1% y / y), and the volume of industrial production in the European Union decreased by 1.7% compared to September of the previous year, but increased compared to August 2019 by 0.1%. The speech by Jerome Powell in Congress was also to the delight of the US dollar.
The Fed Chairman noted the good growth rate of the American economy, announced record low unemployment rates and good labor market conditions. Along with this, he explained that the slowdown in GDP in the third quarter was due to “the consequences of the strike of the United Trade Union of Automobile Workers at General Motors Corporation enterprises”.
Thus, a slight decrease in GDP is a temporary phenomenon. Today, the report on GDP in the European Union may contribute to the continuation of the construction of wave 1, although market activity is likely to remain unchanged. Jerome Powell’s second congressional statement may also support the US dollar.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The euro-dollar pair presumably continues to build the first wave as part of a new downward trend.
Thus, I recommend to remain in the sales of the instrument with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.0993 and 1.0951, which equates to 61.8% and 76.4 Fibonacci, until an unsuccessful attempt to break through any of these levels.
GBP / USD
The GBP/USD pair gained 5 basis points on November 13, and the current wave pattern has not undergone any changes. Thus, as before, the instrument is within the framework of constructing the proposed wave d, whose targets extend below the Fibonacci level of 127.2%.
If the current wave marking is correct, then in the area of 1.2900 – 1.2950 there will be a downward turn and approach to the construction of a bearish wave e .
I recommend considering alternative options for the development of events after a confident attempt to break through the Fibonacci level of 127.2%, near which the alleged wave 3 or C has completed its construction.
Fundamental component:
While Boris Johnson is making the wrong tea and exposing the whole of Great Britain in a culture shock, no news comes from the camp of Labor, Conservatives and other political parties. However, it is precisely the preparation of parties for the elections that is of most interest to the markets now.
What directly ends with Brexit itself depends on the results. But for now, the economic report on inflation in the UK is not interesting for the markets. The report on inflation in the USA was also not interesting.
Since the news background now has a very weak effect on the movement of the pound-dollar instrument, although it is quite strong in itself, it remains only to move within the framework of the current wave marking, which suggests an increase of another 100 points, followed by a decrease of 150-200 points.
Today, there is hope that the UK retail sales report will allow the pair to grow slightly. All negative reports are ignored, but maybe a positive report will help the pound? In the evening – the second speech of Jerome Powell in Congress, at which the rhetoric of the Fed chairman, most likely, will not change.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The pound / dollar instrument supposedly completed the construction of the upward trend section. Thus, only a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2986 can be regarded as a complication of this area, its transformation into a 5-wave one and become the basis for new purchases of the instrument.
At the same time, the trend section after October 21 is becoming more and more horizontal, which allows us to expect a decrease in the instrument to the area of the 27th figure.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
If you have an interest in any area of Forex Trading, this is where you want to be.
Global Fx Trading Group is a world leader in providing Fx services to individual traders, including: Unmatched funding programs, on-line education, virtual trading rooms, automation tools, robot building, and personal coaching.
The company was first established by Jeff Wecker, former member of the Chicago Board of Trade, with 25 years in the industry. Jeff has a keen understanding of the needs of Forex traders and those needs are our focus.
Please join our VIP Group while is still
FREE …
https://t.me/joinchat/JqsXFBKpyj3YS4bLWzT_rg
Our mission is simple: To enhance as many lives as we can through education and empowerment.
#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom
