The meetings of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are now over. Their results are very confusing, we cannot determine the reason why the dollar index is regaining positions – either on its own strength or on the weakness of the European currencies.
Yesterday’s collapse by a figure and a half is leaning more towards the second reason. If that’s the case, in order to gain a solid signal for a euro reversal, moderately positive U.S. employment data should come out today, and weak euro area retail sales data (December forecast -1.3%) is expected on Monday.
In addition to the U.S. jobs data, the ISM Services PMI for January will be released today with a forecast of 50.4/5 versus 49.6 in December. Good data will confirm the dollar’s strength. But so far, the reversal signal is weak from the technical side. So far, only a false breakout above the target level of 1.0990 speaks in favor of a reversal.
To confirm the signal, the price should go below the support range of 1.0758/87. The Marlin oscillator is more inclined to move in this way, but it also remains in the green zone.
On the four-hour chart, the price settled below the MACD indicator line, the Marlin oscillator has entered the area of the downtrend. This is the first sign of the price’s intention to reach the target at 1.0758/87. We’re looking forward to tonight’s US macro data.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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