The euro fell by 90 points yesterday. Undoubtedly, this is a good sign for further downward movement, even to the target of 1.0820, yesterday’s fall itself was technically flawless for the bearish scenario: there was a shadow exit above the price channel line – the euro noted a false movement, yesterday’s candle completely engulfed Thursday’s candle, the Marlin Oscillator turned sharply down.
The only question is whether yesterday’s movement was just a squat before jumping up, in order to eventually resolve the issue with the gap by successfully closing it? That is, we are actually seeing a price rollback from the strong resistance of the price channel trend line and the MACD indicator line. Indeed, the euro’s decline from yesterday is directly related to risk aversion in adjacent markets: S&P 500 lost 1.57%, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.43%, oil -5.9%, gold rose by 0.23%, 10-year yield US government bonds fell from 2.36% to 2.34%, that is, they were bought despite a 75% chance of a double rate increase in May.
The US employment data will be released today. The forecast is optimistic: an increase of 490,000 new jobs is expected in the non-agricultural sector in March, the unemployment rate may decrease from 3.8% to 3.7%. Even the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for March is expected to rise from 58.6 to 59.0. And here there can be an unpleasant surprise. In the event of the release of not so optimistic indicators, the euro may resume growth without a direct correlation with external markets.
The price has symbolically settled under the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Also symbolically, the Marlin Oscillator went into the downward trend zone. In such a situation, nothing prevents the price from resuming growth. It remains to wait for the release of news and see the true reaction of the market.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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