Analysis of transactions in the EUR/USD pair
Several entry signals appeared in the market on Friday. The first sale was at 1.1750, and the time, the MACD indicator was just starting to decline from the zero mark, which led to the formation of a convenient entry point. However, after slightly falling 15 pips, the market began to gradually reverse. A test of the price level of 1.1770 signaled a good entry point for buying. And as a result, the pair edged up 30 pips. The German import price index did not impress traders and did not affect the market in any way, which cannot be said about the speech of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole.
Considering, that Powell did not set new guidelines for investors regarding monetary policy, the pressure on the US dollar returned, which led to a sharp rise in risky assets. The data on consumer confidence in the eurozone is expected today. This will determine how much European consumers believe in their economy and how much they are willing to spend free money at the same time. Also, the inflation report on Germany is expected today, which is expected to be much worse than forecasts. This may temporarily weaken the position of the euro.
Buy signal
Buying the EUR/USD pair will be possible when the price reaches 1.1812 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to the level of 1.1856. At point 1.1856, I recommend exiting the market with a profit and selling the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 10-15 pips in the opposite direction from the level). We can count on the recovery of the euro today only after strong data on consumer confidence and inflation in Germany, which should exceed forecasts, for the bulls to return to the market.
Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy the euro today if the price reaches 1.1787 and 1.1743, but at this moment, the MACD indicator should be in the oversold area, which will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1812 and 1.1856.
Sell signal
Selling the pair will be possible after reaching the level of 1.1787 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1743, where I recommend leaving the market and buying the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 10-15 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of a weak inflation report in Germany, further delaying the European Central Bank’s plans to revise its policy.
Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline from it. It is also possible to sell the euro today if the price reaches 1.1812 and 1.1856, but at this moment, the MACD indicator should be in the overbought area, which will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite level of 1.1787 can be expected.
What’s on the chart:
The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR / USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management, but trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
Analysis of transactions in the GBP/USD pair
Several entry signals in the market were formed on Friday. The first few tests of the 1.3715 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was in the overbought area, which led to the formation of an excellent point to sell the pound in the opposite direction. The downward movement was about 20 pips. Then another test at 1.3715 took place, but there the MACD indicator had already gone quite far up from the zero mark, but it did not climb into the oversold area either. In this regard, nothing was done. Only the fourth test of 1.3715 with the beginning of the growth, the MACD indicator led to an excellent entry point to buy the pair and a jump to the next resistance at 1.3767, which brought about 50 pips of profit.
Today, again there are no important fundamental statistics on the UK and no speeches by representatives of the Bank of England. Important data on the US economy is also not expected. The change in the volume of pending home sales in the US is unlikely to somehow affect the direction of the pound, so I expect trading in a sideways channel – it is best to bet on selling and buying in the opposite direction from the levels indicated below, rather than continuing the trend in one direction.
Buy signal
Buying the GBP/USD pair will be possible when it reaches the entry point around 1.3781 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to the level of 1.3840 (thicker green line on the chart). I recommend exiting purchases and opening sales in the opposite direction of 1.3840 (expecting a movement of 15-20 points in the opposite direction from the level). Further upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3781.
Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy the pair today if the price reaches 1.3747 and 1.3695, but at this moment, the MACD indicator should be in the oversold area, which will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market reversal upward. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.3781 and 1.3840.
Sell signal
Selling the pair will be possible only after the level of 1.3747 (red line on the chart) has been updated, which will lead to a rapid decline. The key target of the sellers will be the level of 1.3695, where I recommend exiting the sales, as well as immediately opening purchases in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 15-20 pips in the opposite direction from the level). The pressure on the pound may increase in the absence of active buyers’ actions near the weekly highs.
Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline from it. It is also possible to sell the pair today if the price reaches 1.3781 and 1.3840, but at this moment, the MACD indicator should be in the overbought area, which will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market reversal downward. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3747 and 1.3695.
What’s on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice traders need to be very careful in making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management, but trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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