Analysis of transactions in the EUR/USD pair

It was impossible to open short positions at first because the MACD line was in the overbought zone, which limited the downward potential of the euro. But then, some time after, the indicator moved below zero, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair was able to decline by 20 and 30 pips.

Trading recommendations for March 26

Strong data on the US economy led to a very sharp drop in EUR/USD. And at the moment, it seems that the bears are not going to stop here, so it is best to stick to short positions on the market. But since it is already the end of the week, many traders might close their positions, which will certainly affect the overall picture in EUR/USD. To add to that, the results of the EU summit may become a catalyst for growth of the euro, as well as the upcoming data on conditions, situation and expectations for the business sector in Germany. Reports on US spending and income will also be published, but it is unlikely to affect the market much since a new government support started in the US this month.

For long positions:

Enter a long position when the quote hits 1.1793 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.1836. However, it is unlikely that the price will grow today because almost all indicators are pointing to a further downwards move. Although the results of the EU summit may change the picture in EUR/USD.

Keep in mind that before buying, the MACD line should be above zero and is starting to rise from it.

For short positions:

Enter a short position when the quote reaches 1.1771 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1734. Pressure on EUR/USD should continue amid weak data on Germany and good reports on the United States.

Before selling, be sure that the MACD line is below zero and is starting to move down from it.

What’s on the chart:

  • The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
  • The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
  • The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
  • The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
  • MACD line – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP/USD pair

Three signals appeared in the market last yesterday. However, two of them had to be ignored because they were formed at a very inopportune time. The first signal, which was to sell at 1.3674, appeared when the MACD line was in the oversold zone. Meanwhile, the signal to buy at 1.3714 was formed during the time that the MACD line had moved to the overbought zone. Only the third signal (to buy at 1.3714) was successful and led to a good price increase in the market.

Trading recommendations for March 26

GBP/USD is slowly getting out of weekly lows because of the improving situation in the UK. In fact, the government has announced that it is considering lifting quarantine measures this April, along with the fact that the pace of vaccination has already picked up. Such allowed very optimistic forecasts for the second quarter. Today, the bullish impulse may continue amid reports on the volume of retail trade and minutes of the Bank of England. Then, in the afternoon, data on US income and spending will be released, although it shouldn’t affect the market much since a new government support started this month.

For long positions:

Enter a long position when the quote hits 1.3769 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3812 (thicker green line on the chart). However, GBP/USD will increase only if the data on UK retail sales come out much better than expected. Make sure that when you open a buy position, the MACD line is above zero and is starting to rise from it.

For short positions:

Enter a short position when the quote reaches 1.3741 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3679. Weak data on UK retail sales will bring back the bear market. When selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero and is starting to move down from it.

What’s on the chart:

  • The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair.
  • The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
  • The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair.
  • The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
  • MACD line – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Jeff Wecker
Jeff Wecker

Jeff Wecker, the inventor of Forex Forager, is a former member of the Chicago Board of Trade. There, Jeff learned his craft in the 30-year bond pit, trading against the world's best, and now has survived and prospered in the industry for the past 25 years. He took the unique knowledge he gained at the CBOT and transitioned it to online trading, where he traded FX, commodities, stock indices, and bonds – all using his unique 5 pip/tick risk system. Visit us at Global Fx Trading Group