EUR / USD
November 5 ended for the pair EUR / USD with a decrease of another 50 basis points. Thus, there were good reasons to assume the completion of wave c as part of the upward correctional set of waves.
If this is true, then from current positions, the decline in quotations will continue as part of the construction of a new downward trend, probably a five-wave impulse. If this assumption is true, then there is bad news for the Euro currency.
A successful attempt to break through the 38.2% level indirectly confirms the willingness of the markets to reduce the euro-dollar pair. The breakthrough of the minimum of the expected wave b, likewise, shows a readiness to lower.
Fundamental component:
On Tuesday, the news background was medium in strength and also controversial. US service activity indices came out in two variations at once (as always). The Markit index showed another slowdown and amounted to only 50.6 points, but the ISM index rose immediately to 54.7.
This discrepancy in readings confused the markets a little, but not for long. The decline in the euro began in the morning, and American economic reports, against the general background of dollar purchases, were also interpreted in favor of the American currency.
Still, the ISM index is considered more important. Today, indexes of business activity in the service sector will be released in Germany and the European Union. The values of these indicators are stable, leaving below 50.0 is not expected.
However, a strong growth of these values – too. Most likely, the markets will not win back these reports.
Purchase goals:
1.1208 – 61.8% Fibonacci
1.1286 – 76.4% Fibonacci
Sales goals:
1.0879 – 0.0% Fibonacci General conclusions and recommendations: The euro-dollar pair allegedly completed the construction of the upward trend correction section.
Since the attempt to break through the minimum of wave b turned out to be successful, I now recommend paying attention to possible sales of the instrument with goals under 10 figure.
GBP / USD
On November 5, the GBP / USD pair gained several basis points, which can be regarded as the absence of changes. The estimated wave b is considered to be completed at the moment, and thus, I expect the construction of a downward wave c with targets located under figure 28.
It remains only to find out whether the current bearish set of waves is the beginning of a new downward trend or wave 4, after which the rise of the pound-dollar pair will be resumed.
Fundamental component:
Yesterday, in the UK, the index of business activity in the service sector, which amounted to exactly 50.0 points. This “borderline” value also indicates the positive dynamics of the services sector, on the other hand, the risk of a decline in the recession zone also remains high.
Based on the current wave counting, the pound-dollar pair is clearly preparing for a new decline, at least for the 27th figure. The news background does not support either the pound or the dollar. And in the near future, it can maintain its scarcity.
The instrument has been living by Brexit for the last three years, and no news will be received on this process in the coming month. Today, November 6, the Parliament is leaving for the next vacation, which somehow too often arises under Boris Johnson.
They will last until December 12, when the nationwide parliamentary elections will be held, according to the results of which, it will be possible to draw certain conclusions.
Earlier today, it does not make sense to guess which party will win and how many votes the conservatives will get. Markets probably understand this and are in no hurry to force things. Thus, a calm decline to the 28th figure is what the pound needs now. Buy time and do not fall back to multi-year lows and hope for a favorable outcome for Brexit.
Sales goals:
1.2191 – 0.0% Fibonacci
Purchase goals:
1.2986 – 127.2% Fibonacci
1.3202 – 161.8% Fibonacci
General conclusions and recommendations:
The pound / dollar instrument supposedly completed the construction of the upward trend section. Thus, only a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2986 can be regarded as a complication of the alleged wave 3 or C and become the basis for new purchases of the instrument.
I recommend looking in the direction of sales after a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2812 (100.0% Fibonacci).
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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