On Friday and this morning, the euro quote remains within Thursday’s range. Since September 8, the price has been coiling around the MACD indicator line, which is sloping downward. The Marlin oscillator is tending downward, even while in positive territory.
The euro is under market pressure ahead of the Fed meeting. A similar sideways movement has been seen on the S&P 500 and government bond yields over the past week — markets are awaiting the Fed’s monetary policy decision.
Our previously stated forecast calls for a decline in the euro, since, along with a rate cut, the FOMC is also expected to send a hawkish signal — there will be no three cuts by year-end, and even a second cut is in question, as Trump’s tariffs have not yet been absorbed by inflation. Target levels are indicated on the chart: 1.1632, 1.1495, 1.1392. The market may come alive tomorrow when ZEW economic sentiment data for the eurozone and US retail sales are released.
On the four-hour chart, the price is moving within the 1.1700/48 range, formed by the MACD line and Friday’s high. The Marlin oscillator forms a wedge pattern pointing downward, suggesting the price will attempt to stay below the MACD line (1.1700).
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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