Yesterday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) data had little effect on the dollar (Dollar Index -0.01%) but notably shifted the probability of a December rate cut to 3.75% from 58.6% to 62.5%. The August PPI came in at 2.6% versus 3.1% y/y in July (revised down from 3.3%), while Core PPI showed 2.8% y/y versus 3.4% previously (revised down from 3.7%).
This is quite a significant drop in the indices, but overall it was due to August’s collapse in PPI from 0.7% m/m (0.9% before revision) to -0.1% m/m. Market participants generally judged that the PPI drop in August would only affect overall inflation by winter, which explains the current 62.5% probability of a rate cut by December.
However, they may have overlooked a more important factor that could fully neutralize this temporary PPI dip: all of the “Trump tariffs” costs fully passed through by winter—borne by manufacturers and wholesale “border” buyers—will eventually end up with the final consumer.
There’s no need to wait for December: today’s release of August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will likely already show inflation rising (forecast 2.9% y/y vs. 2.7% prior). By December, as mentioned, the market will have fully absorbed and felt the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
Yesterday, the euro’s attempt at growth was halted by the daily MACD line. By day’s end, the euro’s price had slipped by 13 pips. The Marlin oscillator did not decline; instead, it waited for a more significant event capable of pushing the price down to the support at 1.1632. If today’s CPI release cannot accomplish this, then we will have to wait for the FOMC meeting on the 17th. Also, today brings the ECB’s monetary policy decision. Market expectations are neutral; no changes to monetary policy are anticipated.
On the H4 chart, price is attempting to break below the MACD (1.1684). A consolidation below this level opens the path toward 1.1632. The Marlin oscillator is fully prepared for this outcome, declining in negative territory.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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