The euro’s 170-pip rally on Friday represented a 50% correction from the extremes observed between July 24 and August 1. While the technical picture has noticeably shifted, the core medium-term bearish scenario for the European currency remains intact.

We believe the correction is now complete, and the EUR/USD pair will attempt to reach the target support level at 1.1266, with pullbacks expected from intermediate levels. On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the MACD line, but for this move to be classified as a false breakout, a return below this line must occur.

This may be the euro’s objective for the entire day, as the market likely needs time to cool down after such a sharp rally — especially given that today is a public holiday in both the UK and Canada.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Jeff Wecker
Jeff Wecker

Jeff Wecker, the inventor of Forex Forager, is a former member of the Chicago Board of Trade. There, Jeff learned his craft in the 30-year bond pit, trading against the world's best, and now has survived and prospered in the industry for the past 25 years. He took the unique knowledge he gained at the CBOT and transitioned it to online trading, where he traded FX, commodities, stock indices, and bonds – all using his unique 5 pip/tick risk system. Visit us at Global Fx Trading Group