On Friday, the euro tried for the third time to test the resistance of the target level of 1.1186 and the upper boundary of the price channel. If this continues, the resistance will eventually fall. Consolidating above this level will open the target of 1.1276. However, this will not yet signal the start of a medium-term rise, as the potential divergence with the Marlin oscillator may still take effect.

Several counter-dollar currencies have already formed such divergence. The euro can reverse without divergence, similar to what happened in November 2022 but in an upward scenario. For this to occur, the Marlin oscillator must consolidate in the downtrend territory, and the price must subsequently consolidate below the MACD line.

On the four-hour chart, Marlin is close to crossing into negative territory. If the price breaks through the support level of 1.1076, it will also mean breaking through the MACD line in this time frame. The situation remains bullish on both timeframes, so we will wait to see how events unfold.

The Eurozone September Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be released today. A slight weakening is expected, with the composite PMI from S&P Global forecasted to drop from 51.0 to 50.6. This upward trend may change.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Jeff Wecker
Jeff Wecker

Jeff Wecker, the inventor of Forex Forager, is a former member of the Chicago Board of Trade. There, Jeff learned his craft in the 30-year bond pit, trading against the world's best, and now has survived and prospered in the industry for the past 25 years. He took the unique knowledge he gained at the CBOT and transitioned it to online trading, where he traded FX, commodities, stock indices, and bonds – all using his unique 5 pip/tick risk system. Visit us at Global Fx Trading Group

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