On Monday, markets eased the tension from the previous week—the dollar index rose by 0.22%, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.32%, and only oil increased by 2.35%, but for its reasons. The euro has consolidated on the daily chart above the 1.1140 level and seems to be entering a period where it wanders freely, with the lower boundary set at 1.1085. The Marlin oscillator’s signal line has sharply turned downward and is falling ahead of the price.
The 1.1280-1.1310 range may not be reached before the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve meetings. A substantial fall in the euro is expected after these central bank meetings. In the 4-hour chart, the divergence is intensifying, but its effect on the price decline is weak. Therefore, overcoming the 1.1140 support and the MACD line below is challenging.
A price consolidation below 1.1140 could lead to a move toward the 1.1085 support level, but this would happen within the framework of price wandering. There are no technical grounds for either growth or decline at the moment. The upper boundary of the wandering range is not defined; it may be higher than yesterday’s peak, and then a double divergence may form on the 4H chart.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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