Yesterday evening, representatives of the Federal Reserve – Goolsbee, Barkin, Mester – reinforced Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s message from Wednesday about how early it was to lower rates before June. This appeared convincing after the release of data on increased claims for unemployment benefits. In addition, the minutes from the latest European Central Bank meeting suggested that the central bank is inclined to lower rates before the summer, as arguments in favor of considering a rate cut have strengthened.
Market participants are expecting the first ECB rate cut in June, but it wouldn’t be a shock if the ECB takes the first step earlier, at the upcoming meeting on April 11. Investor sentiment reflected this yesterday: S&P 500 -1.23%, yields on European short-term government bonds rose. The euro closed the day up by 1 pip, although it did increase by 40 pips during the day.
On the daily chart, this rise looks like an unsuccessful attempt to reach the upper shadow of the MACD indicator line. Currently, the price is on the balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator has not changed over the day, waiting for signals from adjacent markets in the downtrend territory. This technical picture indicates that the price intends to drop below the 1.0796 level.
On the 4-hour chart, the price quickly rose above the MACD line and will now try to return back just as quickly. The descending Marlin oscillator suggests this plan, dropping faster than it rose yesterday. We expect the price to consolidate below 1.0796 according to the main scenario.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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