On Tuesday, the euro traded in a range of 42 points. The single currency fell by 13 pips, but the Marlin oscillator continued to move upward, approaching the border of the bullish territory. Futures were factoring in a 98% chance that the central bank would leave rates unchanged at 5.50. Markets are no longer expecting further rate hikes, and there’s a 33% probability of a rate cut in Q2 2024.
Technical forecasting factors are becoming more significant every day, and they suggest a rise in the euro after today’s Federal Reserve meeting. The only intriguing factor is that the EUR/USD pair did not close above the level of 1.0687 yesterday, which also kept the Marlin oscillator in negative territory.
However, take note that this morning, the price broke out of the Fibonacci channel’s basic range and moved upwards (green lines). Succeeding growth by at least one channel width confirms the target at 1.0824/34.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is stuck on the MACD line and resistance at 1.0687. The Marlin oscillator cannot settle in the positive area. But if the price consolidates above the indicator line and the price level, there’s a good chance of rising further. We are waiting for the market’s reaction to the Fed meeting.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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