On Thursday, markets witnessed a flight from risk: the S&P 500 -1.35%, dollar index by 0.58%. The euro initially tried to break above 1.0865 earlier in the day, but could no longer resist; bears surpassed the key support level of 1.0834 and Wednesday’s low. If the price settles below the immediate target support level of 1.0780, the target will be 1.0690.
However, there’s one circumstance that urges us to be cautious – yesterday’s trading volume was average, which means that Stop Losses were not triggered. Apparently, long positions in the second week of July, due to their speculative nature, were closed long ago. Thus, for buyers, there’s a fair chance to counteract the current decline. The current resistance level is 1.0931 – the peak of August 22, which is close to the MACD line.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak, followed by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Even if the central bank heads don’t provide new information, market participants are clearly geared up for hectic actions. We’re currently seeing a downtrend; perhaps the markets will end the day with black candles (on Forex and stock platforms).
Still, a similar speculative rise is likely next week. The euro has a buffer for a safe reversal up to the 1.0690-1.0725 range. Consolidating below it will make such a reversal improbable. On the four-hour chart, a downtrend in the short-term period.
The price has settled below both indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is falling in the downtrend territory. We wait to see how events unfold.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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